Magical Thinking and Complex Adaptive Systems

Obviously there are some things that we can definitely understand to establish predictable patterns—these are simple things. This is where best practice comes from. For example, when your car runs out of petrol, you fill it up. When your car is running low on petrol, you fill it up to prevent running out. Simple!

There are also things that aren’t quite as simple, these things are a bit more complicated, and we need to use someone with some expertise to analyse what’s going on so that we can find the right combination of linear, predictable patterns to solve the problem. For example, you hear a rattle in your car, and you get your mechanic to fix it. It’s not simple (or it could be) but you need the mechanic to go through an analysis of a range of causal factors to work out what they need to do to fix it. As you can see, that’s a bit more complicated!

And complicated things can become more simple over time (that’s how they inform best practice). When I first learned how to drive a car, that was really complicated! But over time, I wasn’t concentrating on all the little individual things I had to think about, and all of a sudden, I was just, simply, driving the car.

But, then there are the things that are complex—where things are a bit more unpredictable! Where if you go into the same space and try to do the same things twice, you will get two different outcomes. In this complex space, the rules are always changing. The variables are always changing—heck, the space itself is always changing. And to make it worse, everything you do in the complex space, even the simple stuff, actually contributes to the changes that make it so unpredictable. The best example I can find, continuing with the car analogy, is to imagine driving in India! It doesn’t matter how full your tank is, or how well your car is running, driving in India is nothing short of batshit crazy!

The folks at the petrol pump can fill up your tank. The mechanic can fix your car, but they can’t help you drive in a complex terrain. You can even learn to drive a car yourself, but nothing prepares you for the shit show you encounter when the rubber hits the road in India! This is something you can get advice on, but you can only really learn by doing it yourself, by constantly sensing and responding to the changing dynamics.

The rules don’t keep people predictable.

Complex problems like suicide rates, pandemics, or global instability don’t follow tidy patterns. And yet, time and again, we try to force simple or complicated solutions onto these messy realities. When Covid hit, governments went around throwing around phrases like “flatten the curve” or “follow the science,” but managing a pandemic isn’t just about science or curves—it’s about human behaviour. And humans? We’re gloriously irrational creatures who panic-buy toilet paper at the first sign of trouble. You can’t predict that kind of madness with a neat algorithm or a PowerPoint deck.

Simple solutions are great for simple problems. Complicated solutions are great for complicated problems. But when we try to apply a linear analytical process to a complex human phenomenon, we invariably fall short of truly understanding it, and we often misrepresent the complexity of what’s actually going on.

Of course we learn lessons, and those lessons, over time, can inform best practice, but those lessons are only learned in retrospect, in hindsight, after the fact. While we’re balls deep in the complexity, we’re just sensing and responding, testing and adjusting, probing and acting to get through.

Much like listening to an improvised bebop jazz solo—when you’re in it, you know something is happening, but it is not until the song is over and you ask yourself what the actual fudge just happened, that you start to make sense of it and then create these elaborate theoretical rules to replicate it, but only ever create a cheap facsimile of the original that occurred in real time, through a constant interplay between the various musicians.

A simple, linear and causal approach 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘅 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺𝘀. This approach works well in siple and 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺𝘀, 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿 and repeatable. But 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘅 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺𝘀, 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀, just 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝘁𝗵e same 𝘄𝗮𝘆.

In complexity, 𝘀𝘂𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗶𝘀𝗻’𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰. It’s 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹, shaped by the evolving context of the emergent system. 

Factors that led to the success of one company or project 𝗰𝗮𝗻’𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗯𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿. We need to look at how success and outcomes are exapted, by the agents in the complex human and cultural system.

As Dave Snowden argued, 

“In complexity, hindsight creates the illusion of predictability. What worked can only be understood in retrospect, and even then, it can’t be replicated.”

And this is where magical thinking sneaks in—not as some fluffy woo-woo nonsense but as a way humans cope with uncertainty and unpredictability. In fact, many dismiss magical thinking as purely flawed reasoning. Don’t get me wrong—sometimes it is. But then again, so is causal and linear thinking at times.

In psychology, magical thinking refers to the belief that thoughts, rituals, or emotions can influence real-world events without any logical connection. It’s often seen in early childhood development or tied to mental health conditions like OCD or delusion. 

Taken to the extreme, magical thinking can be quite disabling—I know, I’ve used it before, especially in times of genuine despair.

But when you dig deeper, you’ll find that magical thinking isn’t just about superstition—it’s also a way humans grapple with uncertainty and complexity.

Take anthropologist Malinowski’s observations of the Trobriand Islanders in his classic ‘Argonauts of the Western Pacific’. He found that these islanders didn’t confuse magic with science—they used both. They relied on practical knowledge for farming and fishing but turned to magical rituals when outcomes were uncertain or beyond their control. Magic wasn’t a replacement for rational thinking; it was a functional response to unpredictability.

And let’s be real—don’t we all do this? When life throws us curveballs, we cling to rituals, symbols, and beliefs to make sense of the chaos. That’s humanity. Culture itself is a kind of “magical technology,” a toolkit we’ve built over millennia to navigate life’s complexity.

The human mind is an incredibly flexible instrument. We don’t just find patterns—we create them, and we just can’t help it! When faced with incomplete information (which is always), our brains fill in the gaps with stories and symbols that help us make sense of our experiences. It’s why we see shapes in clouds or hear hidden messages when a song plays backward (hello, 1980s Satanic panic).

Numbers? We even imbue those with meaning! As Kirsten Bell quips in her book ‘Silent but Deadly’:

“Take 7734206. Some people might see an inauspicious number (4) surrounded by innocuous siblings, or a pattern in which the beginning and end numbers equal the sum of the middle number and its left and right counterpart, respectively. Others, typing it into their pocket calculator and turning it upside down, might see it as a hidden message ('902hELL'). Others, still, may assume it reveals the location of a portal to Hell itself (based on international postal codes, that would be Rambam 10 in Ashdod, Israel).

The point is that if you look long enough, you'll start to see patterns because that's what humans do.”

We’re literally wired for this stuff—In fact, humans only collate 4% of available information before making a decision. We’re lazy, opportunistic thinkers. But it’s also how we’ve survived as a species! Our knack for finding patterns makes us creative and resourceful (seriously, have you ever seen how teenagers invent excuses to get out of doing something?), but it also makes us prone to cognitive biases, stereotypes, and conspiracy theories. 

The use of logical fallacies, mental heuristics and cognitive biases may help to speed up our decision making, but that doesn’t make it more efficient or effective. On top of that, we lie to ourselves all the time! Hell, I tell myself that I’m gonna start eating healthy and doing exercise as of Monday, and I kid you not, I truly believe it’s the right thing for me to do. Fast forward one week and I’m eating my emotions with pink iced doughnuts (the ones with sprinkles on top), and yet I tell myself I’m healthy because I hold this belief that I’ll eventually do it. 

But we are not JUST lazy thinkers…we are also critical, ethical and empathetic thinkers.

And that’s when  anthropology comes in. 

Anthropologists don’t just listen to what people say; they pay attention to what people do. Because let’s be honest, we humans are notorious for saying one thing and doing the exact opposite. (Exhibit A: Every New Year’s resolution ever.)

Anthropology is about zooming in and out—switching between a worm's-eye view and a bird's-eye view. It’s about seeing the patterns emerge from the chaos while also paying attention to the meaning people create as they navigate their messy realities. This dual perspective allows us to synthesise complex data in real time, making us more responsive to the ever-shifting dynamics of complex systems. And while it might look like we’ve got some kind of crystal ball for predicting human behavior, we don’t. What we do have is a finely tuned ability to read the room...and then make shit up about it! (in some scientific parlance…we call this “abductive reasoning”).

To do this effectively in complex spaces, we use a method that brings together multiple perspectives in a holistic way. Through synthesis in a multi-vocal and intersubjective space, we allow diverse voices and viewpoints to interact, contest, and triangulate, ultimately creating a richer, more nuanced understanding of meaning.

More importantly, rather than freezing meaning at a single point in time or anchoring it to one perspective, we treat it as a living document—constantly emerging, adapting, and evolving. This dynamic approach ensures that our understanding remains responsive to the ever-changing nature of complex adaptive systems.

To do this, we pay attention to what people are doing (practices, rituals, patterns of life, behaviours).

We pay attention to how people categorise the world and create meaning (structures).

We pay attention to the things people use to represent the meaning they create in the world (symbols).

By understanding symbols, structures and practices, you get a better understanding of how people interact with complexity and uncertainty, and how they create whole cultures out of this type of thinking and being in the world.

And by embracing this, rather than relegating it to mere superstition or ill-informed thinking, we can gather much greater insights into what is actually happening in a way that is much more flexible, adaptive and responsive than if you try to squeeze complex phenomena into simple, linear frameworks in order to feel like you can understand, predict and control it.

Because let’s be honest, that’s a type of magical thinking in and of itself!

Here’s where it gets interesting: magical thinking isn’t just something that happens “out there” in people’s personal lives—it’s alive and kicking in workplaces too. And before you roll your eyes at Janet from accounting who swears by her “lucky coffee mug,” let me explain why this matters.

Magical Thinking as a Response to Systemic Gaps

When communication breaks down or support structures fail in an organisation, employees don’t just sit around twiddling their thumbs—they create their own narratives to fill the gaps. These narratives might be based on incomplete information or assumptions (aka magical thinking), but they serve an important purpose: they help people make sense of uncertainty. For example, if leadership is vague about why certain decisions are being made, employees might start speculating—and voilà! A new office myth is born.

This is where anthropologists—or anyone willing to think anthropologically—can step in. By identifying these “magical” narratives and rituals within an organisation, we can uncover weak signals—those early indicators of emerging trends or potential problems that might otherwise go unnoticed.

Ecosystems Over Individuals

In complex systems (like organisations), success isn’t about finding one magical unicorn employee who will solve all your problems—it’s about fostering strong collaborative dynamics across teams. Think ecosystems, not egos. Magical thinking often arises when people feel isolated or unsupported; creating a culture that prioritises collaboration can help mitigate this by giving employees a shared sense of purpose and agency.

Safe-to-Fail Experiments

Let’s face it: businesses love their “sure bets.” But in complex systems, chasing that one perfect solution is often an exercise in futility—and yes, a form of magical thinking itself! Instead of putting all your eggs in one basket (and praying for a miracle), invest in portfolios of safe-to-fail experiments. These small-scale tests allow you to probe different possibilities without betting the farm on any single outcome.

Raising Cultural Awareness

Magical thinking isn’t inherently bad—it’s just another way humans navigate uncertainty. By raising our cultural awareness and creating spaces for critical, empathetic, and ethical thinking within organisations, we can harness this natural tendency for sense-making rather than dismissing it outright.

For example, imagine an organisation where leadership actively encourages brave conversations about workplace challenges. Instead of letting magical thinking fester unchecked (e.g., “Management doesn’t care about us”), these conversations bring hidden assumptions into the open. Employees become co-creators of solutions rather than passive recipients of top-down directives.

The Anthropologist's Role: Making Sense of Complexity

Here’s the thing: staff members are already experts in navigating the gaps within your organisation—they live it every day! Our role as anthropologists (or cultural consultants) isn’t to swoop in with all the answers but to help frame those narratives so they can be understood and acted upon. By paying attention to symbols, structures, and practices within an organisation, we can illuminate how people interact with complexity—and how those interactions shape culture.

More importantly, we’re here to support organisations in doing this work themselves. Because at the end of the day, understanding complexity isn’t about eliminating uncertainty—it’s about learning how to dance with it.